← 12/14 Cat FootPrint Taoyuan Regional
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at 12/14 Cat FootPrint Taoyuan Regional
decks
15
(7.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
104
55-41-8
overall winrate
56.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.8%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
54.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1297
· median 1301
· range 1045–1533
(15 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1171
Q3 1364
1730
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
13% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.6% | 26 | 15-11-0 | 57.7% | 56.7% | 54.9% | +1.8 |
| Wind Allies | 10.6% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 51.6% | +0.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.0% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 41.6% | -4.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.5% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.3% | +2.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.6% | +5.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.0% | 11 | 4-5-2 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 50.9% | +0.4 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 71.0% | +13.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 60.5% | +6.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 54.6% | +2.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Water Allies | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -4.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 39.2% | -5.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.7 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 15 from this event
The 15 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
